Basic ingredients of successful trading

sydneyblair1 — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 09:53:41 +0000

A trade is a bet on a price change, but there is a paradox. Each price reflects the latest consensus of value of market participants. Putting a trade challenges that consensus. A buyer disagrees with the collective wisdom by saying the market is underpriced. A seller disagrees with the wisdom of the entire group, believing the market is overpriced. Both buyer and the seller expect the consensus to change, but meanwhile they defy the market. That market includes some of the brilliant minds and some of the deepest pockets on Earth. Arguing with this group is dangerous business, and it has to be done very cautiously.

An intelligent trader looks for holes in the efficient market theory. He scans the market for brief periods of inefficiency. When the crowd is gripped by greed, the newcomers jump in and load up on stocks. When falling prices squeeze the fingers of thousands of buyers, they dump their holdings in a panic, disregarding fundamental values. Those episodes of emotional behavior dilute the cold efficiency of the market, creating opportunities for discipline traders. Futures option trading